Nilambur: Even as the campaigning for the Nilambur assembly by polls came to an end, the Congress is confident of victory with Wayanad MP Priyanka Gandhi Vadra campaigning extensively. However, the margin of victory might go down due to aggressively fought four cornered election.
The bypoll election of Nilambu is being seen as a semifinal between the ruling LDF and the opposition UDF in the southern state. This election will also predict if the Congress-led UDF will make a comeback in the next year assembly polls and stop the juggernaut of Pinarayi Vijayan, who is eyeing for a consecutive third term in the state.
Both the traditional rival fronts in Kerala, LDF and the opposition UDF have expressed confidence in their victory.
Nilambur is presently held by the Left, and the election was necessitated when PV Anvar—an independent backed by it since 2016—resigned after making a slew of allegations against Chief Minister Vijayan earlier this year.
Nilambur is located at the foothills of the Western Ghats, and is part of the Muslim-majority Malappuram district, a stronghold of UDF ally, the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML). However, the assembly seat comes under Wayanad district.
During the last year Wayanad bypolls, Priyanka Gandhi managed to get a margin of 65,000 votes from this Muslim dominated assembly.
Now Anvar has also nominated as an independent candidate, after Congress decided to field Aryadan Shoukath. The CPI (M) has named its former Thrippunithura legislator M Swaraj as the LDF candidate, also a native of Nilambur.
Meanwhile, the BJP has fielded UDF defector Mohan George. Georgebwas earlier associatednwith the Kerala Congress.
The LDF is hopeful that the candidacy of Anvar and George will help in splitting the votes of the UDF in one of its strong bastion.
George is a representative of the Christian settler-farmers in Nilambur, and the BJP assumes that his candidature will result in the erosion of the Congress vote bank.
The Congress party is hopeful that its candidate Shoukath will sail easily in this bypolls as the assembly has majority votes of Muslims and Christians and Priyanka Gandhi campaigning in the assembly extensively.
Priyanka Gandhi, who is also Congress general secretary, had campaigned in the Nilambur assembly constituency for two consecutive days on June 15 and 16.
A party source said that the Congress candidate will emerge victorious in this bypolls, as the dynamics are in its favour and with the backing of the IUML it can stop the split in votes.
He also said that the support of Jamaat-e-Islami Hind backed political outfit Welfare Party to the Congress will also help it in the bypolls.
He further highlighted that the religion composition of the assembly favours the grand old party, with Muslims comprising 49 per cent of the total voters while Christians accounting for 13 per cent.
Explaining the caste arithmetic, he said Ezhavas are 17 per cent, while Nairs comprises 12 per cent and SC and ST comprise 7 per cent.
The Congress is looking to retain its one of the stronghold for three decades that it lost in 2016 to the CPI-M.
Congress’ Shoukath is son of eight term MLA, Aryadan Mohammad who represented the seat from 1965 to 2016.
Even Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan campaigned for the CPI-M-led Left Democratic Front and accused the Congress led UDF of playing communal cards to win the polls. The Congress has denied the allegations of the Chief Minister.
The LDF during the high octane poll campaign, also targeted the Congress after the Welfare Party’s support for the UDF candidate saying that it was part of the communal stance that the Grand Old Party-led alliance in the state has been continuing for some time.
However, the LDF has also got the support extended by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), led by controversial cleric Abdul Nasar Ma’dani, for the Left candidate in the Nilambur bypoll.
The LDF justified the supoort and stated that PDP was a party that has suffered “several persecutions” in the state.
Nilambur goes to the polls on June 19, and the principal fight is between Shoukath of the Congress and Swaraj of the CPI-M, Anvar, who quit in January following a major spat with Chief Minister Vijayan, and George of the BJP.
Counting of votes will take place on June 23.
