Commentators on several international channels speak of the thousands of years of Persian history, and they are right. The Persians once bid fair to take over much of Europe, until Alexander of Macedon held them back and defeated them in 331 BC at the Battle of Gaugamela. The Macedonians and Greeks under Alexander defeated the Persian forces under Darius III and became the victor over the Persians. What relation does that have to the clerical regime in Iran that was put in place by Grand Ayatollah Khomeini in 1979? For years Ayatollah Khomeini had been in exile in France, allowed to live there by the Shahenshah of Iran. He had been under the care of liberal Persians such as Abol Hassan Bani-Sadr, who was appointed by Ayatollah Khomeini as the first President of post-Shah Iran. Very soon, Bani-Sadr understood that the plan of Khomeini was not to go into meditation in Iran in the way he had in France, but to rule as the Supreme Leader of a clerical regime. The Ayatollah, backed by mobs conditioned into obedience through years of clandestinely listening to smuggled cassettes playing the rants of the Ayatollah against the Shah, removed Bani-Sadr and from then onwards, Iran has been ruled by the clerics under the Supreme Leader. Once Ayatollah Khomeini died in 1989, his loyal follower Grand Ayatollah Ali Khamenei took over as Supreme Leader, and has since ruled Iran. The attacks now being carried out by Israel will conclude only with the end of the clerical regime once the nuclear capability of Iran is eliminated or in the defeats of Israel, an unlikely and unthinkable outcome for the democracies.
Going by size and population, taking on Iran kinetically by itself may seem an impossible task for Israel. The reality, however, is that the clerical regime is unpopular among the bulk of the Iranian people, especially the Arab Sunnis in the east and the Persian majority in Iran. The latter look back nostalgically at the period of imperial rule, when they were free to wear and behave much as they liked. Which is why many Iranian women travelling to the few destinations in Europe open to them on airlines that are not state owned doff their chador soon after Iranian airspace is cleared and reveal the most modern of dresses, in which they enjoy their idyll abroad, careful to wear outsize dark glasses while outside their residences, for fear of the Iranian secret police filming them and preparing retribution once they return home. The clerical regime in Iran, with its strict codes on several aspects of ordinary life has become loathed, which is why they are unlikely to coalesce in unity now that their country is at war with Israel.
The regime will respond to Israel by volleys of missiles, almost all of which are likely to be repulsed by the missile defence system of the State of Israel. International shipping and airlines are likely to be affected until the war concludes, but for both the clerical regime (as distinct from most of the clerics as such) as well as Israel, the war is existential and has been going on since 1979 in some form or the other. Iran is a favourite destination because of the cuisine and the warmth of ordinary people, and should the clerical regime be eliminated in the manner sought by Israel, the US and several other states, revenue from tourism will be a major revenue source, besides petroproducts. Barring the Emirate of Qatar, which has good relations with both President Erdogan as well as Ayatollah Khamenei, other Gulf states are likely to, albeit silently, welcome the close of the clerical regime. In common with President Saddam Hussein during his stint in power in Iraq, the clerical leadership in Iran favours the replacement of the rule of the Emirs with non-royal Supreme Leaders such as Saddam was and Ayatollah Khamenei. The outcome of the Iran-Israel war will determine the contours of the Middle East for the foreseeable future.
