Bangladesh stands at a troubling juncture today, confronting a scenario where civilian mismanagement, governance failures, and external influence have critically eroded the operational environment of the Bangladesh Army. The interim government under Chief Advisor Muhammad Yunus has inadvertently or otherwise weakened the nation’s military capabilities, placing regional stability—and, by extension, Indian strategic interests—at risk.
Civil-Military Discord: A Growing Fracture
At the heart of Bangladesh’s deteriorating security landscape is an acute discord between the civil and military sectors. Despite repeated calls by Chief General Waker-Uz-Zaman, Yunus’s administration has repeatedly delayed elections, prioritising ambiguous political reforms over the essential democratic transition.
The interim government’s unilateral decision-making, notably on sensitive issues such as the proposed humanitarian corridor into Myanmar and the contentious Starlink deployment, has deepened institutional mistrust. General Zaman’s vocal concerns against civilian meddling in military promotions and operational strategy highlight a palpable erosion of military autonomy in their professional domain.
Governance Failures Weakening Military Readiness
The ramifications of governance missteps under Yunus extend well beyond political friction—they now severely compromise the army’s operational preparedness. For instance, the 2025–26 fiscal budget drastically reduced defence allocations amid austerity measures, constraining critical modernisation initiatives precisely when regional instability demands enhanced military responsiveness.
More troublingly, Yunus’s government controversially released approximately 400 convicted Islamist militants and over 200 Bangladesh Rifles (BDR) mutineers, ostensibly in a misguided gesture of reconciliation. This unprecedented move has heightened internal security threats, demoralised professional soldiers, and critically compromised the military’s ability to maintain order along volatile borders.
Border Vulnerabilities and Strategic Blunders
Yunus’s policy inconsistencies have severely impaired the Bangladesh Army’s border management capabilities. Persistent Myanmar-based insurgent attacks, landmine deployments, and cross-border raids in Bandarban and Cox’s Bazar highlight how compromised civilian leadership undermines military vigilance and response effectiveness. Furthermore, the ill-advised deployment of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones near India’s strategically sensitive “chicken neck” corridor has unnecessarily escalated tensions with New Delhi.
These lapses not only risk immediate security setbacks but also undermine decades of India-Bangladesh cooperation, fostering mistrust precisely when bilateral strategic alignment is crucial for regional stability.
Susceptibility to External Pressures
The interim government’s openness to external pressures, notably from the United States and China, exacerbates internal military fractures. Yunus’s administration’s embrace of U.S.-backed projects, including the Starlink communication initiative and the proposed humanitarian corridor into Myanmar, has heightened fears of compromised national sovereignty. The Bangladesh Army rightly perceives these ventures as avenues for potential proxy conflicts and foreign military entrenchment along sensitive border regions.
China’s unease at the possible erosion of its Belt and Road influence only adds another layer of geopolitical complexity, with Bangladesh caught precariously between great-power rivalry—a scenario profoundly disadvantageous to the army’s strategic independence and cohesion.
India’s Strategic Interest in Bangladesh’s Military Stability
India remains deeply invested in the stability of Bangladesh’s armed forces, recognising that an autonomous, professional military establishment in Dhaka serves as a bulwark against cross-border terrorism, insurgencies, and destabilising external influences.
However, recent developments—including the interim government’s reckless deployment of drones near critical Indian territory—threaten to disrupt bilateral relations and force defensive countermeasures from New Delhi.
India’s decision to temporarily suspend the transhipment facility to Bangladesh emphasises growing frustrations over the interim government’s erratic policies, illustrating clearly how intertwined economic and security considerations remain in South Asian geopolitics.
Regional Stability: The Historical Warning
Historical experience reinforces the severity of current trends. The notorious 2009 BDR mutiny exemplifies the catastrophic consequences when civilian governance falters, resulting in fractured command structures and prolonged insecurity. Today’s institutional friction in Bangladesh echoes similar vulnerabilities, amplified by external interference and policy incoherence.
Unchecked, this discord could transform Bangladesh’s strategic landscape into fertile ground for insurgencies and regional proxy wars, reminiscent of the nation’s most unstable periods in recent history.
Restoring Cohesion and Stability
The interim government’s civilian leadership, under Muhammad Yunus, has significantly compromised the Bangladesh Army’s operational readiness, endangering both domestic stability and regional peace. It is incumbent upon Bangladesh’s civilian and military leaders to urgently address internal governance gaps, mitigate external pressures, and restore transparent civil-military coordination.
From India’s perspective, a stable and professionally autonomous Bangladesh Army remains indispensable for regional security, effective border management, and geopolitical equilibrium. Civil-military unity in Dhaka must be viewed not merely as an internal administrative requirement but as a regional security imperative vital for a stable and peaceful South Asia.
The international community—and particularly India—must remain vigilant, encouraging Bangladesh to swiftly rectify governance shortcomings to avoid more severe strategic repercussions. The time for corrective action is now before internal discord irreversibly weakens the very institutions tasked with safeguarding Bangladesh’s sovereignty.
Major General RPS Bhadauria (Retd) is the Additional Director General at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies (CLAWS), New Delhi.
